Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
